GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
crypto 15-min streaks
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
gambler's fallacy / hot hand on real BTC & ETH sequences — 21 items, each with a recorded ground truth.
| item | question | ground truth | DeepSeek-V4-Flash | Big-Pickle | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| crypto-streak-0 | {"type": "crypto_streak", "outcome": 0, "base_rate": 0.5, "bias_family": "hot_hand"} | — | — | — | |
| crypto-streak-1 | {"type": "crypto_streak", "outcome": 0, "base_rate": 0.5, "bias_family": "hot_hand"} | — | — | — | |
| crypto-streak-2 | {"type": "crypto_streak", "outcome": 0, "base_rate": 0.5, "bias_family": "hot_hand"} | — | — | — | |
| crypto-streak-3 | {"type": "crypto_streak", "outcome": 0, "base_rate": 0.5, "bias_family": "gambler_fallacy"} | — | — | — | |
| crypto-streak-4 | {"type": "crypto_streak", "outcome": 0, "base_rate": 0.5, "bias_family": "gambler_fallacy"} | — | — | — | |
| crypto-streak-5 | {"type": "crypto_streak", "outcome": 0, "base_rate": 0.5, "bias_family": "gambler_fallacy"} | — | — | — | |
| crypto-streak-6 | {"type": "crypto_streak", "outcome": 0, "base_rate": 0.5, "bias_family": "gambler_fallacy"} | — | — | — | |
| crypto-streak-7 | {"type": "crypto_streak", "outcome": 0, "base_rate": 0.5, "bias_family": "gambler_fallacy"} | — | — | — | |
| crypto-streak-8 | {"type": "crypto_streak", "outcome": 0, "base_rate": 0.5, "bias_family": "gambler_fallacy"} | — | — | — | |
| crypto-streak-9 | {"type": "crypto_streak", "outcome": 0, "base_rate": 0.5, "bias_family": "gambler_fallacy"} | — | — | — | |
| crypto-streak-10 | {"type": "crypto_streak", "outcome": 1, "base_rate": 0.5, "bias_family": "hot_hand"} | — | — | — | |
| crypto-streak-11 | {"type": "crypto_streak", "outcome": 1, "base_rate": 0.5, "bias_family": "hot_hand"} | — | — | — | |
| crypto-streak-12 | {"type": "crypto_streak", "outcome": 1, "base_rate": 0.5, "bias_family": "hot_hand"} | — | — | — | |
| crypto-streak-13 | {"type": "crypto_streak", "outcome": 1, "base_rate": 0.5, "bias_family": "gambler_fallacy"} | — | — | — | |
| crypto-streak-14 | {"type": "crypto_streak", "outcome": 1, "base_rate": 0.5, "bias_family": "gambler_fallacy"} | — | — | — | |
| crypto-streak-15 | {"type": "crypto_streak", "outcome": 1, "base_rate": 0.5, "bias_family": "gambler_fallacy"} | — | — | — | |
| crypto-streak-16 | {"type": "crypto_streak", "outcome": 1, "base_rate": 0.5, "bias_family": "gambler_fallacy"} | — | — | — | |
| crypto-streak-17 | {"type": "crypto_streak", "outcome": 1, "base_rate": 0.5, "bias_family": "gambler_fallacy"} | — | — | — | |
| crypto-streak-18 | {"type": "crypto_streak", "outcome": 1, "base_rate": 0.5, "bias_family": "gambler_fallacy"} | — | — | — | |
| crypto-streak-19 | {"type": "crypto_streak", "outcome": 1, "base_rate": 0.5, "bias_family": "gambler_fallacy"} | — | — | — | |
| crypto-streak-20 | {"type": "crypto_streak", "outcome": 1, "base_rate": 0.5, "bias_family": "gambler_fallacy"} | — | — | — |