GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
crypto-streak-4
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | DeepSeek-V4-Flash |
| module | crypto_market · bias |
| ground truth | {"type": "crypto_streak", "outcome": 0, "base_rate": 0.5, "bias_family": "gambler_fallacy"} |
| score | {} |
Prompt
Crypto prediction market: ETH 15-minute up/down contracts. The market has resolved YES in each of the last 4 consecutive 15-minute windows (price fallen in each). What is YOUR probability that the next window resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
(no response)
Parsed
{}