GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-value-8
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_value", "outcome": 0, "price_q0": 57.0, "implied_p": 0.57} |
| score | {"id": "market-value-8", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.0, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Will G2 Esports win the MIBR vs. G2 Esports Valorant match?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 57.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.
Raw response
No edge without match-specific analysis (form, map pool, roster changes, etc.). Market price of 57¢ implies ~57% win probability — efficient for a tier-1 Valorant match. **Decision: `no_bet`, bet_size: `0`**
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": 0.0,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.57,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "No edge without match-specific analysis (form, map pool, roster changes, etc.). Market price of 57\u00a2 implies ~57% win probability \u2014 efficient for a tier-1 Valorant match. \n\n**Decision: `no_bet`, bet_size: `0`**",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 14.41708493232727
}