GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-value-7
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_value", "outcome": 0, "price_q0": 38.0, "implied_p": 0.38} |
| score | {"id": "market-value-7", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": null, "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.1935483870967742, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Tyler Glasnow: 8+ strikeouts?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 38.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.
Raw response
**bet**, **0.04** (4% of bankroll = $40) **Reasoning**: Market implies 38% probability. Glasnow's career K/9 ~11.5, but recent injury history and opponent quality matter. Assuming a favorable matchup (weak offense, hitter-friendly park, expected 90-100 pitches), true probability ~45-48%. Kelly fraction: (0.46 - 0.38) / (1 - 0.38) ≈ 0.13 → half-Kelly = 0.065. Conservative 0.04 accounts for model uncertainty and single-game variance.
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": 0.04,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.04,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "**bet**, **0.04** (4% of bankroll = $40)\n\n**Reasoning**: Market implies 38% probability. Glasnow's career K/9 ~11.5, but recent injury history and opponent quality matter. Assuming a favorable matchup (weak offense, hitter-friendly park, expected 90-100 pitches), true probability ~45-48%. Kelly frac",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 41.46849584579468
}