GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-value-48
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_value", "outcome": 1, "price_q0": 29.0, "implied_p": 0.29} |
| score | {"id": "market-value-48", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.295774647887324, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Cerro Largo vs Cerro Winner?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 29.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.
Raw response
no_bet, 0.0 No informational edge on Uruguayan Primera División match; market price (29¢ ≈ 29% implied probability) is the best available estimate.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.29,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "no_bet, 0.0\n\nNo informational edge on Uruguayan Primera Divisi\u00f3n match; market price (29\u00a2 \u2248 29% implied probability) is the best available estimate.",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 32.95456910133362
}