GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-value-47
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_value", "outcome": 1, "price_q0": 10.0, "implied_p": 0.1} |
| score | {"id": "market-value-47", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "refused": true, "ev_score": 0.0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "Bitcoin price range on Apr 11, 2026?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 10.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.
Raw response
I need more information to make this decision. The question "Bitcoin price range on Apr 11, 2026?" is incomplete — what specific price range does "YES" correspond to? (e.g., "BTC > $100k", "BTC between $50k-$75k", etc.) Without knowing the exact condition, I cannot form a probability estimate to compare against the 10% market price. **General framework once you have the specific condition:** 1. **Estimate your probability `p`** of the YES outcome 2. **Compare to market price `q = 0.10`** 3. **If `p > q`**: Positive EV. Optimal Kelly fraction = `(p - q) / (1 - q)` 4. **If `p ≤ q`**: No bet **Example**: If you believe `p = 0.20` (20% chance) for a specific range: - Kelly fraction = `(0.20 - 0.10) / (1 - 0.10) = 0.111` → bet ~11% of bankroll ($111) What is the exact price range for the YES condition?
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": 0.11,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.1,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "I need more information to make this decision. The question \"Bitcoin price range on Apr 11, 2026?\" is incomplete \u2014 what specific price range does \"YES\" correspond to? (e.g., \"BTC > $100k\", \"BTC between $50k-$75k\", etc.)\n\nWithout knowing the exact condition, I cannot form a probability estimate to co",
"refused": true,
"duration_s": 65.40408992767334
}