GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-value-43
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_value", "outcome": 0, "price_q0": 52.0, "implied_p": 0.52} |
| score | {"id": "market-value-43", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.04, "kelly_dev": 0.04, "realized_return": -0.04, "ev_score": 0.0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Will G2 Esports win map 1 in the MIBR vs. G2 Esports match?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 52.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.
Raw response
I'll estimate G2's true win probability at ~60% based on historical team strength (G2 typically favored over MIBR). At 52¢ market price, that's an 8% edge. **Decision: bet, bet_size = 0.04** (4% of bankroll = $40) Kelly fraction would be ~0.16, but with high uncertainty in esports, I'm sizing conservatively at 1/4 Kelly.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": 0.04,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.6,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "I'll estimate G2's true win probability at ~60% based on historical team strength (G2 typically favored over MIBR). At 52\u00a2 market price, that's an 8% edge.\n\n**Decision: bet, bet_size = 0.04** (4% of bankroll = $40)\n\nKelly fraction would be ~0.16, but with high uncertainty in esports, I'm sizing cons",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 22.220235109329224
}