GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-value-41
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_value", "outcome": 0, "price_q0": 22.0, "implied_p": 0.22} |
| score | {"id": "market-value-41", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": null, "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.358974358974359, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Internacional vs Gremio Winner?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 22.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.
Raw response
{"type":"step_start","timestamp":1785772942926,"sessionID":"ses_037a3660cffe16MhbLyHoAyjR9","part":{"id":"prt_fc85ca642001nNalG6uWcqHBrF","messageID":"msg_fc85c9b56001TKVr1l2ieIY2A2","sessionID":"ses_037a3660cffe16MhbLyHoAyjR9","type":"step-start"}} {"type":"step_finish","timestamp":1785772944023,"sessionID":"ses_037a3660cffe16MhbLyHoAyjR9","part":{"id":"prt_fc85caa68001PETXwNYzpBmyka","reason":"unknown","messageID":"msg_fc85c9b56001TKVr1l2ieIY2A2","sessionID":"ses_037a3660cffe16MhbLyHoAyjR9","type":"step-finish","tokens":{"total":10748,"input":10690,"output":0,"reasoning":58,"cache":{"write":0,"read":0}},"cost":0}}
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": null,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "{\"type\":\"step_start\",\"timestamp\":1785772942926,\"sessionID\":\"ses_037a3660cffe16MhbLyHoAyjR9\",\"part\":{\"id\":\"prt_fc85ca642001nNalG6uWcqHBrF\",\"messageID\":\"msg_fc85c9b56001TKVr1l2ieIY2A2\",\"sessionID\":\"ses_037a3660cffe16MhbLyHoAyjR9\",\"type\":\"step-start\"}} {\"type\":\"step_finish\",\"timestamp\":1785772944023,\"s",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 5.150179862976074
}