GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-value-40
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_value", "outcome": 1, "price_q0": 45.0, "implied_p": 0.45} |
| score | {"id": "market-value-40", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.09090909090909088, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Philadelphia at Winnipeg Winner?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 45.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.
Raw response
**Decision: no_bet** Without any information advantage (team form, injuries, sport context, etc.), my probability estimate equals the market-implied 45%. Since the market price already reflects available information, there's no positive expected value edge. Betting would be negative EV after transaction costs. If you have a specific probability estimate >45%, the Kelly fraction would be `(p - 0.45) / (1 - 0.45)` where `p` is your estimated win probability.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.45,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "**Decision: no_bet**\n\nWithout any information advantage (team form, injuries, sport context, etc.), my probability estimate equals the market-implied 45%. Since the market price already reflects available information, there's no positive expected value edge. Betting would be negative EV after transa",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 13.719344139099121
}