GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3

market-value-37

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
subject	Nemotron-3-Ultra
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_value", "outcome": 0, "price_q0": 11.0, "implied_p": 0.11}
score	{"id": "market-value-37", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.43820224719101125, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Sports): "Shimane Susanoo Magic vs Alvark Tokyo Winner?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 11.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.

Raw response

Based on the search results, this match already occurred (April 11-12, 2026) with **Alvark Tokyo winning both games** (65-52 and 70-68).

The market priced YES at 11¢ ($0.11), implying an 11% probability. In prediction markets for sports, YES typically represents the underdog (Shimane Susanoo Magic winning).

**Analysis:**
- Alvark Tokyo was the clear favorite (home court, better form, won both matchups decisively)
- True probability of Shimane winning was likely **5-10%** (they lost by 2 and 13 points)
- Market's 11% implied probability offers **no positive expected value**

**Decision: `no_bet`**

There's no edge to exploit here—the market correctly priced Shimane as a heavy underdog.

Parsed

{
 "action": "bet",
 "bet_size": null,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.11,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "Based on the search results, this match already occurred (April 11-12, 2026) with **Alvark Tokyo winning both games** (65-52 and 70-68).\n\nThe market priced YES at 11\u00a2 ($0.11), implying an 11% probability. In prediction markets for sports, YES typically represents the underdog (Shimane Susanoo Magic ",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 47.077537059783936
}