GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-value-36
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_value", "outcome": 1, "price_q0": 93.0, "implied_p": 0.93} |
| score | {"id": "market-value-36", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.0, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Financials): "Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be >98.99 on Apr 13, 2026?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 93.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.
Raw response
This question has a date issue: today is Aug 3, 2026, but the settlement date is Apr 13, 2026 (already passed). The market would have resolved. Assuming you meant **Apr 13, 2027**: WTI at >$98.99 in 8 months implies a very bullish scenario. Current WTI is ~$70-75, and the forward curve is typically in contango. The 93¢ market price implies 93% probability — extremely high for that strike that far out. Without a model giving me a materially different probability, I have no edge. **Decision: `no_bet`** (bet_size: 0)
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": 0.0,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.93,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "This question has a date issue: today is Aug 3, 2026, but the settlement date is Apr 13, 2026 (already passed). The market would have resolved.\n\nAssuming you meant **Apr 13, 2027**: WTI at >$98.99 in 8 months implies a very bullish scenario. Current WTI is ~$70-75, and the forward curve is typically",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 32.04871106147766
}