GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3

market-value-32

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
instrument	Nemotron-3-Ultra
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_value", "outcome": 1, "price_q0": 71.0, "implied_p": 0.71}
score	{"id": "market-value-32", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.0, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Sports): "Will Team Liquid win the Team Liquid vs. Shopify Rebellion League of Legends match?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 71.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.

Raw response

Given the extreme price target ($4802/oz vs current ~$2500/oz) and the market's 74% implied probability, my estimated probability is far lower (<10%). Kelly criterion yields negative expected value.

**Decision: no_bet, bet_size: 0**

Parsed

{
 "action": "bet",
 "bet_size": 0.0,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.74,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "Given the extreme price target ($4802/oz vs current ~$2500/oz) and the market's 74% implied probability, my estimated probability is far lower (<10%). Kelly criterion yields negative expected value.\n\n**Decision: no_bet, bet_size: 0**",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 28.97871994972229
}