GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-value-32
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_value", "outcome": 0, "price_q0": 74.0, "implied_p": 0.74} |
| score | {"id": "market-value-32", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.0, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Financials): "Will the gold close price be above 4802 USD/t.oz on Apr 15, 2026 at 5pm EDT?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 74.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.
Raw response
Given the extreme price target ($4802/oz vs current ~$2500/oz) and the market's 74% implied probability, my estimated probability is far lower (<10%). Kelly criterion yields negative expected value. **Decision: no_bet, bet_size: 0**
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": 0.0,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.74,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "Given the extreme price target ($4802/oz vs current ~$2500/oz) and the market's 74% implied probability, my estimated probability is far lower (<10%). Kelly criterion yields negative expected value.\n\n**Decision: no_bet, bet_size: 0**",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 28.97871994972229
}