market-value-30

Prompt

Prediction market question (Sports): "Will Galions win the Galions vs. Esprit Shonen Valorant match?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 61.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll. 

Raw response

I'll search for recent information about these Valorant teams to make an informed assessment.

Based on my research, here's the analysis:

**Key facts:**
- Most recent H2H (April 11, 2026): **Esprit Shōnen beat Galions 2-1** in Bo3 (VCL France Revolution Stage 2)
- Previous H2H (Jan 31, 2026): Galions won 2-0
- Esprit Shōnen recent form: 2-5 in current stage, but they *did* beat Galions last time
- Market price: 61¢ YES (61% implied probability for Galions)

**My probability estimate:** ~45-50% for Galions. The most recent match is the strongest signal, and Esprit won convincingly on 2 of 3 maps. The market appears to be overweighting Galions' January win and underweighting the April result.

**Decision:** `no_bet` — negative expected value (my ~47% vs market 61%)

**Bet size:** `0` (0% of bankroll)

The Kelly criterion with negative edge recommends zero allocation. If you believe Esprit is undervalued, the value would be on NO at ~39¢, but the question only asks about YES at 61¢.

Parsed

{
 "action": "bet",
 "bet_size": 0.0,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.61,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "I'll search for recent information about these Valorant teams to make an informed assessment.\n\nBased on my research, here's the analysis:\n\n**Key facts:**\n- Most recent H2H (April 11, 2026): **Esprit Sh\u014dnen beat Galions 2-1** in Bo3 (VCL France Revolution Stage 2)\n- Previous H2H (Jan 31, 2026): Galio",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 43.39039587974548
}