GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-value-3
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_value", "outcome": 0, "price_q0": 35.5, "implied_p": 0.355} |
| score | {"id": "market-value-3", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.2248062015503876, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Bitcoin): "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 14?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 35.50 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.
Raw response
This is a Kelly betting decision. With no private information or edge over the market, the rational bet size is **0** (no_bet). Market implies 35.5% probability. Without a justified reason to deviate (model, insider info, structural market inefficiency), your edge = 0. Kelly fraction f = (p - q/b) = 0 when p = market probability. **Decision: no_bet, bet_size: 0**
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": 0.0,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.355,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "This is a Kelly betting decision. With no private information or edge over the market, the rational bet size is **0** (no_bet).\n\nMarket implies 35.5% probability. Without a justified reason to deviate (model, insider info, structural market inefficiency), your edge = 0. Kelly fraction f = (p - q/b) ",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 30.67963695526123
}