GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3

market-value-3

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
instrument	Nemotron-3-Ultra
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_value", "outcome": 0, "price_q0": 44.0, "implied_p": 0.44}
score	{"id": "market-value-3", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.10714285714285712, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Sports): "Texas vs A's first 5 innings runs?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 44.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.

Raw response

This is a Kelly betting decision. With no private information or edge over the market, the rational bet size is **0** (no_bet).

Market implies 35.5% probability. Without a justified reason to deviate (model, insider info, structural market inefficiency), your edge = 0. Kelly fraction f = (p - q/b) = 0 when p = market probability.

**Decision: no_bet, bet_size: 0**

Parsed

{
 "action": "bet",
 "bet_size": 0.0,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.355,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "This is a Kelly betting decision. With no private information or edge over the market, the rational bet size is **0** (no_bet).\n\nMarket implies 35.5% probability. Without a justified reason to deviate (model, insider info, structural market inefficiency), your edge = 0. Kelly fraction f = (p - q/b) ",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 30.67963695526123
}