GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-value-28
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_value", "outcome": 1, "price_q0": 10.0, "implied_p": 0.1} |
| score | {"id": "market-value-28", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.13, "kelly_dev": 0.31444444444444447, "realized_return": 1.17, "ev_score": 1.0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Will Cub Swanson win the Cub Swanson vs. Nate Landwehr UFC fight by KO/TKO/DQ?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 10.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.
Raw response
This fight **already happened** at UFC 327 on April 11, 2026. **Cub Swanson won by TKO (punches) at 4:06 of Round 1.** The market resolved **YES** (Swanson by KO/TKO). --- If this were a hypothetical decision **24 hours before the fight** with YES priced at 10¢ (10% implied probability): **Analysis:** - **mmamodel.ai** gave Swanson by KO/TKO: **22% probability** - **CageQuant** predicted: Swanson KO/TKO R1 - Landwehr had **3 consecutive KO/TKO losses** (Choi, Charriere, Swanson) - Swanson coming off KO win vs Quarantillo (18-month layoff, age 42) **My probability estimate: ~20-25%** **Kelly Criterion** (using p=0.22, odds 9:1): ``` f* = (bp - q) / b = (9 × 0.22 - 0.78) / 9 = 0.133 = 13.3% ``` **Decision: BET** — significant edge (22% true vs 10% implied) **Bet size: ~10-13% of bankroll** → **$100-$130** (conservative half-Kelly: ~$65) --- **Actual result:** The bet would have won 10:1 ($100 bet → $1,000 profit).
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": 0.13,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.1,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "This fight **already happened** at UFC 327 on April 11, 2026. **Cub Swanson won by TKO (punches) at 4:06 of Round 1.**\n\nThe market resolved **YES** (Swanson by KO/TKO).\n\n---\n\nIf this were a hypothetical decision **24 hours before the fight** with YES priced at 10\u00a2 (10% implied probability):\n\n**Analy",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 43.705318212509155
}