GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-value-24
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_value", "outcome": 0, "price_q0": 30.0, "implied_p": 0.3} |
| score | {"id": "market-value-24", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.28571428571428575, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Ind. Medellin vs Atletico Nacional Winner?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 30.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.
Raw response
I'll analyze this using the Kelly criterion. The market implies 30% probability (30¢ per $1 share). For a Medellín vs Nacional clásico, historical data suggests Nacional wins ~40%, Medellín ~30%, Draw ~30%. If "YES" means Medellín wins, the market (30%) roughly matches base rates — no clear edge. **Decision: `no_bet`** — insufficient edge to justify risking bankroll on a high-variance rivalry match without current form/injury data. If you have private info (injuries, tactical changes, motivation), adjust accordingly. Otherwise, preserve the $1000 for clearer edges.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.3,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "I'll analyze this using the Kelly criterion. The market implies 30% probability (30\u00a2 per $1 share). \n\nFor a Medell\u00edn vs Nacional cl\u00e1sico, historical data suggests Nacional wins ~40%, Medell\u00edn ~30%, Draw ~30%. If \"YES\" means Medell\u00edn wins, the market (30%) roughly matches base rates \u2014 no clear edge.\n",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 20.260356187820435
}