GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-value-22
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_value", "outcome": 0, "price_q0": 22.0, "implied_p": 0.22} |
| score | {"id": "market-value-22", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.1, "kelly_dev": 0.25897435897435894, "realized_return": -0.1, "ev_score": 0.0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Palestino vs Deportes Limache Winner?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 22.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.
Raw response
I'll research this match to make an informed betting decision. Based on my research: **Match Analysis:** - **H2H**: Palestino won 3 of last 4 meetings (including 2-1 at home Nov 2025, 1-0 away May 2025) - **Current form (Apr 2026)**: Palestino 7th (7W-3D-5L), undefeated at home (2W-2D); Limache 9th (6W-3D-6L), away 1W-2D-1L - **Elo model**: Favors Limache 55.6% vs Palestino 44.4% - **PargoBet prediction**: Palestino 35%, Draw 35%, Limache 30% **Market**: YES at 22¢ implies ~22% probability. Assuming "YES" = Palestino wins (first team listed), my fair value is ~35-40%. **Significant edge (~13-18%)**. **Kelly Criterion** (half-Kelly for uncertainty): - b = (1-0.22)/0.22 = 3.55 - p ≈ 0.375 - f = (3.55×0.375 - 0.625)/3.55 ≈ 0.20 → half-Kelly = **10%** **Decision: bet, bet_size: 0.10** ($100 on YES at 22¢)
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": 0.1,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.556,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "I'll research this match to make an informed betting decision.\n\nBased on my research:\n\n**Match Analysis:**\n- **H2H**: Palestino won 3 of last 4 meetings (including 2-1 at home Nov 2025, 1-0 away May 2025)\n- **Current form (Apr 2026)**: Palestino 7th (7W-3D-5L), undefeated at home (2W-2D); Limache 9t",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 98.63881993293762
}