GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-value-21
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_value", "outcome": 1, "price_q0": 39.0, "implied_p": 0.39} |
| score | {"id": "market-value-21", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": null, "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.180327868852459, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Trujillanos vs Est. Merida Winner?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 39.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.
Raw response
Without specific knowledge of Venezuelan football (Trujillanos vs Estudiantes de Mérida), I have no edge over the market. The market implies 39% probability. **Decision: no_bet, bet_size: 0** **Reasoning:** - Market price = 39¢ → implied probability = 39% - Without domain expertise or private information, my subjective probability ≈ market probability - Expected value ≈ 0 (no positive EV) - Kelly criterion bets 0 when edge ≤ 0 If you have a strong independent model giving you >39% (e.g., 50%+), then bet_size = (p - 0.39) / (1 - 0.39) via Kelly. But absent that, stay out.
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": 0.0,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.39,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "Without specific knowledge of Venezuelan football (Trujillanos vs Estudiantes de M\u00e9rida), I have no edge over the market. The market implies 39% probability.\n\n**Decision: no_bet, bet_size: 0**\n\n**Reasoning:** \n- Market price = 39\u00a2 \u2192 implied probability = 39%\n- Without domain expertise or private inf",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 10.41599416732788
}