GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3

market-value-2

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
instrument	Nemotron-3-Ultra
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_value", "outcome": 0, "price_q0": 49.0, "implied_p": 0.49}
score	{"id": "market-value-2", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.01960784313725492, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Sports): "Will Randy Brown win the Holland vs Brown professional MMA fight scheduled for Apr 11, 2026?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 49.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.

Raw response

I don't have enough information to form a probability estimate for this match. "Orlando Storm" and "Louisville Kings" don't appear to be major professional sports teams (not in NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, or major college conferences).

**Decision framework you'd use:**
1. **Estimate true probability (p)** - Research team records, rosters, injuries, home/away, recent form
2. **Compare to market implied probability** - 35¢ = 35% implied probability
3. **Bet if p > 35%** (positive expected value)
4. **Size via Kelly criterion**: `f* = (p - 0.35) / (1 - 0.35) = (p - 0.35) / 0.65`
5. **Cap at reasonable fraction** (e.g., 1-5% of bankroll for single bet)

**Without data**: `no_bet`, `bet_size: 0`

If you have team stats, I can help calculate. What sport/league is this?

Parsed

{
 "action": "bet",
 "bet_size": 0.0,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.35,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "I don't have enough information to form a probability estimate for this match. \"Orlando Storm\" and \"Louisville Kings\" don't appear to be major professional sports teams (not in NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, or major college conferences).\n\n**Decision framework you'd use:**\n1. **Estimate true probability (p)** ",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 12.507961750030518
}