GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3

market-value-2

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
subject	Nemotron-3-Ultra
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_value", "outcome": 0, "price_q0": 35.0, "implied_p": 0.35}
score	{"id": "market-value-2", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.23076923076923078, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Sports): "Orlando Storm vs Louisville Kings winner?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 35.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.

Raw response

I don't have enough information to form a probability estimate for this match. "Orlando Storm" and "Louisville Kings" don't appear to be major professional sports teams (not in NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, or major college conferences).

**Decision framework you'd use:**
1. **Estimate true probability (p)** - Research team records, rosters, injuries, home/away, recent form
2. **Compare to market implied probability** - 35¢ = 35% implied probability
3. **Bet if p > 35%** (positive expected value)
4. **Size via Kelly criterion**: `f* = (p - 0.35) / (1 - 0.35) = (p - 0.35) / 0.65`
5. **Cap at reasonable fraction** (e.g., 1-5% of bankroll for single bet)

**Without data**: `no_bet`, `bet_size: 0`

If you have team stats, I can help calculate. What sport/league is this?

Parsed

{
 "action": "bet",
 "bet_size": 0.0,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.35,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "I don't have enough information to form a probability estimate for this match. \"Orlando Storm\" and \"Louisville Kings\" don't appear to be major professional sports teams (not in NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, or major college conferences).\n\n**Decision framework you'd use:**\n1. **Estimate true probability (p)** ",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 12.507961750030518
}