GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-value-19
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_value", "outcome": 1, "price_q0": 5.0, "implied_p": 0.05} |
| score | {"id": "market-value-19", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": null, "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.4736842105263158, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Will Metizport win the Basement Bobs vs. Metizport CS2 match?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 5.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.
Raw response
Based on the data, this match **already occurred on April 11, 2026** — Metizport won 2-0 as heavy favorites (bookmaker odds ~1.28, implied ~78% probability). The market pricing YES at **5¢ (5% implied probability)**
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.78,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "Based on the data, this match **already occurred on April 11, 2026** \u2014 Metizport won 2-0 as heavy favorites (bookmaker odds ~1.28, implied ~78% probability).\n\nThe market pricing YES at **5\u00a2 (5% implied probability)**",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 92.63841772079468
}