market-value-18

Prompt

Prediction market question (Sports): "Will BNK FEARX win map 2 in the DN SOOPers vs. BNK FEARX match?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 55.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll. 

Raw response

I'll search for current information about these teams to make an informed betting decision.

Based on my research, this match **already occurred on July 30, 2026** — BNK FEARX won 2-0, including map 2. The market has resolved at ~100% for BNK FEARX.

However, treating your question as a **decision at T-24h (July 29)** when the market priced YES at 55¢:

**My probability estimate: ~61% for BNK FEARX to win map 2**

Reasoning:
- BNK FEARX was series favorite at ~65-69% (Polymarket, bookmakers)
- 5-0 H2H record vs DN SOOPers in 2026
- LCK Cup 2026 finalists with stable roster
- In a BO3, P(win map 2) ≈ per-game win probability ≈ 61% (implied from series odds)

**Decision: `bet`**

**Bet size: 5% of bankroll ($50)** — half-Kelly fraction

Kelly calculation:
- Market odds: 55¢ → net odds b = 0.45/0.55 = 0.818
- My p = 0.61, q = 0.39
- Full Kelly: f* = (0.818×0.61 - 0.39)/0.818 ≈ 13.3%
- Half-Kelly (prudent for single bet): **~6.7%** → I'd round to **5%** ($50)

Expected value: +$5.50 (6.1¢ per $1 bet, ~11% ROI)

Parsed

{
 "action": "bet",
 "bet_size": 0.05,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 1.0,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "I'll search for current information about these teams to make an informed betting decision.\n\nBased on my research, this match **already occurred on July 30, 2026** \u2014 BNK FEARX won 2-0, including map 2. The market has resolved at ~100% for BNK FEARX.\n\nHowever, treating your question as a **decision a",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 82.40052032470703
}