GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-value-15
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_value", "outcome": 1, "price_q0": 31.0, "implied_p": 0.31} |
| score | {"id": "market-value-15", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.2753623188405797, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Atlanta wins by over 2.5 runs?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 31.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.
Raw response
**Decision: no_bet** **Bet size: 0** Without specific information about the teams, starting pitchers, weather, injuries, or other game context, there's no basis for a probability estimate that differs from the market's 31% implied probability. Betting without an informed edge has negative expected value after accounting for the vig/spread.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.31,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "**Decision: no_bet**\n\n**Bet size: 0**\n\nWithout specific information about the teams, starting pitchers, weather, injuries, or other game context, there's no basis for a probability estimate that differs from the market's 31% implied probability. Betting without an informed edge has negative expected",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 39.33073401451111
}