GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-value-13
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_value", "outcome": 0, "price_q0": 33.0, "implied_p": 0.33} |
| score | {"id": "market-value-13", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.2537313432835821, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Colorado wins by over 1.5 goals?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 33.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.
Raw response
**Decision: no_bet, bet_size: 0** **Reasoning:** The market prices YES at 33¢ (implied probability ~33%). Without any information about: - Which sport (NHL, MLS, college, etc.) - Which Colorado team (Avalanche, Rapids, Colorado College, etc.) - The opponent - Current form, injuries, goalie matchups, etc. I have no basis to form a probability estimate that differs from the market. With no perceived edge, the Kelly-optimal bet size is 0.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": 0.0,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.33,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "**Decision: no_bet, bet_size: 0**\n\n**Reasoning:** The market prices YES at 33\u00a2 (implied probability ~33%). Without any information about:\n- Which sport (NHL, MLS, college, etc.)\n- Which Colorado team (Avalanche, Rapids, Colorado College, etc.)\n- The opponent\n- Current form, injuries, goalie matchups",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 19.266950845718384
}