GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-value-10
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_value", "outcome": 0, "price_q0": 7.0, "implied_p": 0.07} |
| score | {"id": "market-value-10", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.4623655913978495, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Will Jesper De Jong win the Cerundolo vs De Jong: Qualification Final match?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 7.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.
Raw response
I don't have enough information to form a calibrated probability estimate for this specific tennis match (Cerundolo vs De Jong, qualification final). Without domain knowledge about player form, head-to-head history, surface suitability, and tournament context, any probability would be a guess. **Recommendation: no_bet** The market implies ~7% win probability for De Jong. Unless you have strong private information suggesting the true probability is significantly higher (e.g., >10-15% for Kelly betting), there's no identifiable edge. Betting without an edge has negative expected value.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.07,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "I don't have enough information to form a calibrated probability estimate for this specific tennis match (Cerundolo vs De Jong, qualification final). Without domain knowledge about player form, head-to-head history, surface suitability, and tournament context, any probability would be a guess.\n\n**Re",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 21.25402307510376
}