GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3

market-value-0

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
subject	Nemotron-3-Ultra
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_value", "outcome": 0, "price_q0": 71.0, "implied_p": 0.71}
score	{"id": "market-value-0", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.0, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Sports): "Dallas Renegades vs Columbus Aviators winner?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 71.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.

Raw response

**Decision: no_bet**

Without any information about these teams (which appear to be fictional or from an obscure league), I have no basis to form a probability estimate that differs from the market's 71% implied probability. With no edge, the Kelly criterion bets $0.

If you have a specific probability estimate (e.g., from a model), the Kelly fraction would be:
```
f = (p - q) / (1 - q) where p = your probability, q = 0.71
```

Parsed

{
 "action": "bet",
 "bet_size": null,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.71,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "**Decision: no_bet**\n\nWithout any information about these teams (which appear to be fictional or from an obscure league), I have no basis to form a probability estimate that differs from the market's 71% implied probability. With no edge, the Kelly criterion bets $0.\n\nIf you have a specific probabil",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 9.7724289894104
}