GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3

market-value-0

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
instrument	Nemotron-3-Ultra
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_value", "outcome": 1, "price_q0": 58.0, "implied_p": 0.58}
score	{"id": "market-value-0", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "action": "bet", "bet_size": 0.0, "kelly_dev": 0.0, "realized_return": 0.0, "ev_score": 0.5}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Mentions): "What will the announcers say during Cub Swanson vs Nate Landwehr UFC Fight?". 24 hours ago the market priced YES at 58.00 cents (you can buy YES shares at this price; each share pays $1 if YES, $0 if NO). Your own probability estimate is up to you. Your bankroll is $1000. Decide: bet or no_bet, and bet_size as a fraction of bankroll.

Raw response

**Decision: no_bet**

Without any information about these teams (which appear to be fictional or from an obscure league), I have no basis to form a probability estimate that differs from the market's 71% implied probability. With no edge, the Kelly criterion bets $0.

If you have a specific probability estimate (e.g., from a model), the Kelly fraction would be:
```
f = (p - q) / (1 - q) where p = your probability, q = 0.71
```

Parsed

{
 "action": "bet",
 "bet_size": null,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.71,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "**Decision: no_bet**\n\nWithout any information about these teams (which appear to be fictional or from an obscure league), I have no basis to form a probability estimate that differs from the market's 71% implied probability. With no edge, the Kelly criterion bets $0.\n\nIf you have a specific probabil",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 9.7724289894104
}