GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-98
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 1.0, "implied_p": 0.01} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-98", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0144, "prob_error": 0.12, "calibration_bin": 1} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Climate and Weather): "Will the **high temp in LA** be 74-75° on Apr 9, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 1.00 cents (implied probability 0.010). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
I'd estimate **~8-12%** based on LA climatology for early April. **Reasoning:** - LA's average high on April 9 is ~70-72°F with ~6°F standard deviation - 74-75°F is only ~0.5σ above mean — not extreme - A 2°F bin near the mean of a ~6°F-wide distribution has ~10-15% probability density - Market's 1% seems too low (possibly overfitting to a specific model run or misunderstanding the 2°F bin width) **Bet sizing (Kelly, $1000 bankroll):** - At 10% true prob vs 1% market: ~$100 on YES (full Kelly) - At 8% true prob: ~$80 The market appears significantly mispriced if my climatology estimate is correct. Would want to check NWS ensemble forecasts closer to the date for refinement.
Parsed
{
"action": "stand",
"bet_size": 0.1,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.12,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "I'd estimate **~8-12%** based on LA climatology for early April.\n\n**Reasoning:**\n- LA's average high on April 9 is ~70-72\u00b0F with ~6\u00b0F standard deviation\n- 74-75\u00b0F is only ~0.5\u03c3 above mean \u2014 not extreme\n- A 2\u00b0F bin near the mean of a ~6\u00b0F-wide distribution has ~10-15% probability density\n- Market's 1",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 19.826470851898193
}