GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-96
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 99.0, "implied_p": 0.99} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-96", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "refused": true, "ev_score": 0.0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "Bitcoin price on Apr 4, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 99.00 cents (implied probability 0.990). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
This question is about a past date (Apr 4, 2026), which has already occurred relative to today (Aug 3, 2026). However, the question "Bitcoin price on Apr 4, 2026?" is incomplete — prediction markets require a specific condition (e.g., "Bitcoin > $X on Apr 4, 2026?"). Without the threshold, I cannot evaluate the YES/NO resolution. If you have the full market definition (the exact price threshold), I can look up the historical BTC price for that date and give you a definitive probability (either ~1.0 or ~0.0 since the event has already occurred).
Parsed
{
"action": "stand",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": null,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "This question is about a past date (Apr 4, 2026), which has already occurred relative to today (Aug 3, 2026). \n\nHowever, the question \"Bitcoin price on Apr 4, 2026?\" is incomplete \u2014 prediction markets require a specific condition (e.g., \"Bitcoin > $X on Apr 4, 2026?\"). Without the threshold, I canno",
"refused": true,
"duration_s": 28.772472143173218
}