GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3
market-pricing-96
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| instrument | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 65.0, "implied_p": 0.65} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-96", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "refused": true, "ev_score": 0.0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Economics): "Will the Bank of Mexico Cut 25bps at the March Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?". The market currently prices YES at 65.00 cents (implied probability 0.650). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
This question is about a past date (Apr 4, 2026), which has already occurred relative to today (Aug 3, 2026). However, the question "Bitcoin price on Apr 4, 2026?" is incomplete — prediction markets require a specific condition (e.g., "Bitcoin > $X on Apr 4, 2026?"). Without the threshold, I cannot evaluate the YES/NO resolution. If you have the full market definition (the exact price threshold), I can look up the historical BTC price for that date and give you a definitive probability (either ~1.0 or ~0.0 since the event has already occurred).
Parsed
{
"action": "stand",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": null,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "This question is about a past date (Apr 4, 2026), which has already occurred relative to today (Aug 3, 2026). \n\nHowever, the question \"Bitcoin price on Apr 4, 2026?\" is incomplete \u2014 prediction markets require a specific condition (e.g., \"Bitcoin > $X on Apr 4, 2026?\"). Without the threshold, I canno",
"refused": true,
"duration_s": 28.772472143173218
}