GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-95
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 99.0, "implied_p": 0.99} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-95", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "refused": true, "ev_score": 0.0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Oxford United vs Hull Winner?". The market currently prices YES at 99.00 cents (implied probability 0.990). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
I don't have access to real-time sports data, team form, injuries, or match timing to assess this specific Oxford United vs Hull match. My knowledge cutoff is 2024 and I can't browse live sports information. Without knowing when this match occurs/is occurring, current team conditions, or whether it's already resolved, any probability I give would be a guess. If this is a current/future match, you'd need to check: - Team news (injuries, suspensions) - Recent form (last 5-10 matches) - Head-to-head history - Home/away advantage - League standings context What's the match date?
Parsed
{
"action": "stand",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": null,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "I don't have access to real-time sports data, team form, injuries, or match timing to assess this specific Oxford United vs Hull match. My knowledge cutoff is 2024 and I can't browse live sports information.\n\nWithout knowing when this match occurs/is occurring, current team conditions, or whether it",
"refused": true,
"duration_s": 12.269032001495361
}