GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-93
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 99.0, "implied_p": 0.99} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-93", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.00010000000000000018, "prob_error": 0.010000000000000009, "calibration_bin": 9} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "Bitcoin price on Mar 27, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 99.00 cents (implied probability 0.990). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
This question is ambiguous—"Bitcoin price on Mar 27, 2026?" isn't a well-formed binary market. It needs a threshold (e.g., "BTC > $X on Mar 27, 2026?"). Also notable: per your environment, today is **Aug 3, 2026**, so March 27, 2026 has already passed. The market should be resolved. If you clarify the exact YES condition (the price threshold), I can assess whether 99% is reasonable. Common thresholds near that timeframe: - BTC > $50k: ~99%+ plausible (BTC was ~$60-70k in early 2026) - BTC > $100k: ~60-80% range depending on cycle timing - BTC > $10k: ~99.9%+ (near-certain) What's the actual strike?
Parsed
{
"action": "no_bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.99,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "This question is ambiguous\u2014\"Bitcoin price on Mar 27, 2026?\" isn't a well-formed binary market. It needs a threshold (e.g., \"BTC > $X on Mar 27, 2026?\").\n\nAlso notable: per your environment, today is **Aug 3, 2026**, so March 27, 2026 has already passed. The market should be resolved.\n\nIf you clarify",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 28.703226327896118
}