GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3

market-pricing-93

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
instrument	Nemotron-3-Ultra
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 62.0, "implied_p": 0.62}
score	{"id": "market-pricing-93", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.00010000000000000018, "prob_error": 0.010000000000000009, "calibration_bin": 9}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Economics): "Will above 60000 jobs be added in March 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 62.00 cents (implied probability 0.620). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.

Raw response

This question is ambiguous—"Bitcoin price on Mar 27, 2026?" isn't a well-formed binary market. It needs a threshold (e.g., "BTC > $X on Mar 27, 2026?").

Also notable: per your environment, today is **Aug 3, 2026**, so March 27, 2026 has already passed. The market should be resolved.

If you clarify the exact YES condition (the price threshold), I can assess whether 99% is reasonable. Common thresholds near that timeframe:
- BTC > $50k: ~99%+ plausible (BTC was ~$60-70k in early 2026)
- BTC > $100k: ~60-80% range depending on cycle timing
- BTC > $10k: ~99.9%+ (near-certain)

What's the actual strike?

Parsed

{
 "action": "no_bet",
 "bet_size": null,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.99,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "This question is ambiguous\u2014\"Bitcoin price on Mar 27, 2026?\" isn't a well-formed binary market. It needs a threshold (e.g., \"BTC > $X on Mar 27, 2026?\").\n\nAlso notable: per your environment, today is **Aug 3, 2026**, so March 27, 2026 has already passed. The market should be resolved.\n\nIf you clarify",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 28.703226327896118
}