GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-92
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 99.0, "implied_p": 0.99} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-92", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "refused": true, "ev_score": 0.0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Cincinnati wins by over 4.5 runs?". The market currently prices YES at 99.00 cents (implied probability 0.990). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
I cannot provide a meaningful probability without critical context: 1. **Which teams?** Cincinnati Reds vs. which opponent? 2. **Game state:** Pre-game, live (inning/score), or post-game? 3. **Starting pitchers** — the single biggest factor in run differential 4. **Recent form, injuries, bullpen usage, weather, ballpark** A 99¢ price implies the market thinks this is a near-certainty. That's extremely high for a 4.5-run margin in MLB — even heavy favorites typically win by ≥5 runs only ~30-40% of the time. **If you have the game details, I can help you think through the factors.** Otherwise, this looks like a potential mispricing (value on NO) *if* the market is overreacting to a small sample or narrative. But without data, any probability I give would be a guess.
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.4,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "I cannot provide a meaningful probability without critical context:\n\n1. **Which teams?** Cincinnati Reds vs. which opponent?\n2. **Game state:** Pre-game, live (inning/score), or post-game?\n3. **Starting pitchers** \u2014 the single biggest factor in run differential\n4. **Recent form, injuries, bullpen us",
"refused": true,
"duration_s": 11.847285032272339
}