GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-91
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 99.0, "implied_p": 0.99} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-91", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "refused": true, "ev_score": 0.0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "Bitcoin price on Apr 10, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 99.00 cents (implied probability 0.990). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
The question "Bitcoin price on Apr 10, 2026?" is not a well-formed binary market — it lacks a threshold (e.g., "> $100k"). A YES/NO market needs a clear resolution criterion. If you meant "Will Bitcoin exist/trade on Apr 10, 2026?" then 99% is reasonable (near-certainty). If there's a specific price target, I'd need that to evaluate. **My probability: ~0.99** (matching the market) *if* the resolution criterion is something trivially true like "Bitcoin has a price." Otherwise, I can't assess without the actual threshold. What's the exact YES condition?
Parsed
{
"action": "stand",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.99,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "The question \"Bitcoin price on Apr 10, 2026?\" is not a well-formed binary market \u2014 it lacks a threshold (e.g., \"> $100k\"). A YES/NO market needs a clear resolution criterion.\n\nIf you meant \"Will Bitcoin exist/trade on Apr 10, 2026?\" then 99% is reasonable (near-certainty). If there's a specific pric",
"refused": true,
"duration_s": 26.50555682182312
}