GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-90
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 99.0, "implied_p": 0.99} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-90", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "refused": true, "ev_score": 0.0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Mentions): "What will Melania Trump say during Fostering the Future Together Global Coalition Summit on March 25th?". The market currently prices YES at 99.00 cents (implied probability 0.990). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
I can't assess this probability without knowing the specific YES/NO proposition. "What will Melania Trump say" is an open-ended question, not a binary outcome. The market pricing "YES at 99¢" implies there's a specific claim being bet on (e.g., "Melania will mention X," "she will attend," "she will speak"), but you haven't stated what that claim is. Also, I have no access to real-time prediction markets, current events, or future speeches—my knowledge doesn't extend to March 2025+ events. If you clarify the exact proposition, I can discuss how to think about such markets generally (base rates, incentives, information asymmetry), but I can't give a numerical probability for a specific future event.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": null,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "I can't assess this probability without knowing the specific YES/NO proposition. \"What will Melania Trump say\" is an open-ended question, not a binary outcome. The market pricing \"YES at 99\u00a2\" implies there's a specific claim being bet on (e.g., \"Melania will mention X,\" \"she will attend,\" \"she will ",
"refused": true,
"duration_s": 25.016340970993042
}