GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-9
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 1.0, "implied_p": 0.01} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-9", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0, "prob_error": 0.0, "calibration_bin": 0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Will Dusan Lajovic win the Jodar vs Lajovic : Round Of 32 match?". The market currently prices YES at 1.00 cents (implied probability 0.010). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
Based on the search results, **this match already occurred on March 31, 2026** at the Grand Prix Hassan II (Marrakech) Round of 32. Rafael Jodar defeated Dusan Lajovic **6-3, 6-4**. The market is asking about a completed match. Since Lajovic lost, the probability this resolves YES is **0%**. The 1¢ price (1% implied) likely reflects either a delayed settlement or a market error.
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.0,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "Based on the search results, **this match already occurred on March 31, 2026** at the Grand Prix Hassan II (Marrakech) Round of 32. Rafael Jodar defeated Dusan Lajovic **6-3, 6-4**.\n\nThe market is asking about a completed match. Since Lajovic lost, the probability this resolves YES is **0%**.\n\nThe 1",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 26.916696071624756
}