GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-89
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 99.0, "implied_p": 0.99} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-89", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": null, "prob_error": null, "calibration_bin": 0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "Bitcoin price on Mar 28, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 99.00 cents (implied probability 0.990). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
The date **March 28, 2026 has already passed** (today is Aug 3, 2026 per the environment). This market should have already resolved. To give a probability, I need the **specific price threshold** — e.g., "Will Bitcoin be above $X on Mar 28, 2026?" Without that, the question is incomplete. If you provide the threshold, I can check the historical BTC price for that date and give you a definitive probability (0 or 1, since the event is in the past).
Parsed
{
"action": "no_bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": null,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "The date **March 28, 2026 has already passed** (today is Aug 3, 2026 per the environment). This market should have already resolved.\n\nTo give a probability, I need the **specific price threshold** \u2014 e.g., \"Will Bitcoin be above $X on Mar 28, 2026?\" Without that, the question is incomplete.\n\nIf you p",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 28.102722883224487
}