GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-88
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 99.0, "implied_p": 0.99} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-88", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.00010000000000000018, "prob_error": 0.010000000000000009, "calibration_bin": 9} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Baltimore vs Cleveland Winner?". The market currently prices YES at 99.00 cents (implied probability 0.990). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
I don't have real-time sports data (current rosters, injuries, weather, betting lines, etc.) to evaluate this specific matchup. A 99¢ price implies Baltimore is an overwhelming favorite (~99% win probability). To assess if there's edge: - **Check the sport/league** (NFL, MLB, NBA, etc.) — dynamics differ - **Verify the line** — 99¢ suggests a massive spread (e.g., -1500+ moneyline) - **Look for value** — markets can overprice heavy favorites due to public bias Without current data, I'd default near the market price (95-99%) unless you have specific info (injuries, motivation, model disagreement). At 99¢, the Kelly fraction for a $1000 bankroll would be tiny unless your edge is substantial. What sport/league and date is this for?
Parsed
{
"action": "check",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.99,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "I don't have real-time sports data (current rosters, injuries, weather, betting lines, etc.) to evaluate this specific matchup. A 99\u00a2 price implies Baltimore is an overwhelming favorite (~99% win probability).\n\nTo assess if there's edge:\n- **Check the sport/league** (NFL, MLB, NBA, etc.) \u2014 dynamics ",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 23.528757095336914
}