GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-87
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 99.0, "implied_p": 0.99} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-87", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 9.999999999997797e-07, "prob_error": 0.0009999999999998899, "calibration_bin": 9} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Will Yu Hsiou Hsu win the Hsu vs Boulais : Round Of 32 match?". The market currently prices YES at 99.00 cents (implied probability 0.990). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
Based on the match result: **Yu Hsiou Hsu won 7-5, 6-3** (straight sets) at the Yokkaichi Challenger Round of 32 on March 24, 2026. **My probability: ~99.9%** (essentially certain — the match is completed and Hsu won). The market at 99¢ implies ~1% chance of NO, which only makes sense if: - The market hasn't resolved yet (despite match being played 4+ months ago) - There's an unusual resolution rule (walkover, retirement, cancellation clauses) - This is a different Hsu vs Boulais match (but no other scheduled match appears in search results) **With $1000 bankroll**: If the market is genuinely unresolved and will pay $1 on YES, the 1¢ edge ($10 expected value) is trivial. Not worth the capital lockup or counterparty risk. Pass.
Parsed
{
"action": "no_bet",
"bet_size": 0.001,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.9990000000000001,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "Based on the match result: **Yu Hsiou Hsu won 7-5, 6-3** (straight sets) at the Yokkaichi Challenger Round of 32 on March 24, 2026.\n\n**My probability: ~99.9%** (essentially certain \u2014 the match is completed and Hsu won).\n\nThe market at 99\u00a2 implies ~1% chance of NO, which only makes sense if:\n- The ma",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 59.226426124572754
}