GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3

market-pricing-86

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
fieldvalue
subjectNemotron-3-Ultra
moduleprediction_market · rationality
ground truth{"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 99.9, "implied_p": 0.9990000000000001}
score{"id": "market-pricing-86", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "refused": true, "ev_score": 0.0}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Crypto): "ETH price up in next 15 mins?". The market currently prices YES at 99.90 cents (implied probability 0.999). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.

Raw response

I cannot predict 15-minute ETH price movements — that's essentially noise. A 99.9% implied probability for a 15-min directional bet is almost certainly mispriced unless there's an imminent, known catalyst (scheduled unlock, governance vote result, etc.).

Without specific edge/info, my probability ≈ 50% (efficient market hypothesis for short horizons). The market's 99.9% implies the order book thinks it's near-certain, which is a red flag.

**Do not bet this.** Either the market knows something you don't (insider flow, pending news), or it's a liquidity trap. With $1000 bankroll, Kelly fraction would be negative (no edge).

Parsed

{
 "action": "no_bet",
 "bet_size": null,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.9990000000000001,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "I cannot predict 15-minute ETH price movements \u2014 that's essentially noise. A 99.9% implied probability for a 15-min directional bet is almost certainly mispriced unless there's an imminent, known catalyst (scheduled unlock, governance vote result, etc.).\n\nWithout specific edge/info, my probability \u2248",
 "refused": true,
 "duration_s": 38.19330406188965
}