GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-85
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 99.0, "implied_p": 0.99} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-85", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "refused": true, "ev_score": 0.0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Will Marco Cecchinato win the Harris vs Cecchinato : Round Of 16 match?". The market currently prices YES at 99.00 cents (implied probability 0.990). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
I don't have access to real-time sports data (current tournament, player form, injuries, head-to-head records, surface conditions) to make an informed probability assessment. The 99% market price implies Cecchinato is a heavy favorite, but without current match context, I can't evaluate if that's accurate or if there's edge. For a $1000 bankroll, Kelly criterion would suggest betting only if you have a justified probability estimate that differs from the market. Since I lack the necessary sports intelligence, I'd pass or bet minimal (information-value only).
Parsed
{
"action": "no_bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.99,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "I don't have access to real-time sports data (current tournament, player form, injuries, head-to-head records, surface conditions) to make an informed probability assessment. The 99% market price implies Cecchinato is a heavy favorite, but without current match context, I can't evaluate if that's ac",
"refused": true,
"duration_s": 16.748228073120117
}