GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-84
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 99.9, "implied_p": 0.9990000000000001} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-84", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 9.999999999997797e-07, "prob_error": 0.0009999999999998899, "calibration_bin": 9} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on April 14?". The market currently prices YES at 99.90 cents (implied probability 0.999). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
This market is massively overconfident. 99.9% implied probability on an 8.5-month crypto price target is indefensible. **My probability: ~60-70% YES** (Bitcoin has upward drift long-term, but 8 months is huge volatility) **Kelly bet on NO**: With $1000 bankroll and my p≈0.65 vs market q=0.999: - Edge = 0.65 - 0.999 = -0.349 (negative on YES) - Bet NO: fraction = (0.999 - 0.65) / (1 - 0.65) ≈ 1.0x bankroll on NO at ~0.1¢ odds - **Bet ~$1000 on NO at 0.1¢** (essentially free lottery ticket if market is wrong) The market pricing implies Bitcoin *cannot* drop below $75k for 8 months — absurd for an asset that routinely draws down 50%+ in bear markets.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": 1.0,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.9990000000000001,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "This market is massively overconfident. 99.9% implied probability on an 8.5-month crypto price target is indefensible.\n\n**My probability: ~60-70% YES** (Bitcoin has upward drift long-term, but 8 months is huge volatility)\n\n**Kelly bet on NO**: With $1000 bankroll and my p\u22480.65 vs market q=0.999:\n- E",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 51.049241065979004
}