GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-83
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 91.0, "implied_p": 0.91} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-83", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "refused": true, "ev_score": 0.0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "Bitcoin price on Mar 31, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 91.00 cents (implied probability 0.910). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
This question is underspecified — "Bitcoin price on Mar 31, 2026?" needs a price threshold (e.g., "> $100k?"). Without that, the market's 91¢ YES price is uninterpretable. Regardless: **I cannot predict Bitcoin prices.** No model reliably forecasts crypto prices 6+ months out. The 0.91 implied probability reflects market sentiment, not ground truth. If you're seriously evaluating this bet: 1. Clarify the exact resolution criterion 2. Assess whether you have genuine information edge (unlikely for macro crypto) 3. If you did have an edge *p*, Kelly fraction = (p - 0.91) / (1 - 0.91) — but p ≈ 0.91 without edge → bet $0 **My probability: undefined / no opinion.** Don't bet $1000 on this.
Parsed
{
"action": "no_bet",
"bet_size": 0.0,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.91,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "This question is underspecified \u2014 \"Bitcoin price on Mar 31, 2026?\" needs a price threshold (e.g., \"> $100k?\"). Without that, the market's 91\u00a2 YES price is uninterpretable.\n\nRegardless: **I cannot predict Bitcoin prices.** No model reliably forecasts crypto prices 6+ months out. The 0.91 implied prob",
"refused": true,
"duration_s": 17.378488063812256
}