GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-82
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 94.0, "implied_p": 0.94} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-82", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.7055999999999999, "prob_error": 0.84, "calibration_bin": 1} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Financials): "Will the minimum SP500 value reach below 6500.01 by Jan 1, 2027?". The market currently prices YES at 94.00 cents (implied probability 0.940). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
I'd put the probability around **0.75-0.80**. The market's 0.94 seems too high. A drop from current levels (~5600-5800 range as of Aug 2026) to below 6500 is essentially guaranteed (it's already far below that), but the question phrasing "minimum SP500 value reach below 6500.01" is ambiguous—it could mean "will the *low* during the period go below 6500" (trivially YES, already happened) or "will it close below 6500 on Jan 1, 2027" (different question). If it's asking whether the *index level at any point* drops below 6500: that's already happened historically, so probability ≈ 1.0. If it's asking about Jan 1, 2027 *closing level*: S&P at ~5600 today would need to drop ~16% more in 5 months. Historical 5-month drawdowns of that magnitude occur ~15-20% of the time. So 0.80-0.85 YES. The 0.94 price suggests either market misunderstanding of the question or extreme bearish positioning. I'd bet NO at 94¢ (i.e., buy NO at 6¢).
Parsed
{
"action": "stand",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.16,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "I'd put the probability around **0.75-0.80**.\n\nThe market's 0.94 seems too high. A drop from current levels (~5600-5800 range as of Aug 2026) to below 6500 is essentially guaranteed (it's already far below that), but the question phrasing \"minimum SP500 value reach below 6500.01\" is ambiguous\u2014it cou",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 23.345837116241455
}