GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-81
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 87.0, "implied_p": 0.87} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-81", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.6400000000000001, "prob_error": 0.8, "calibration_bin": 2} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Politics): "Will number of transit calls as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 20 from Mar 9, 2026 to Mar 15, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 87.00 cents (implied probability 0.870). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
Based on the detailed data from IMF PortWatch (via Windward, AOL, Lloyd's List, Cyprus Shipping News), here's my assessment: **Key facts for March 9–15, 2026 (Strait of Hormuz):** - War began Feb 28; traffic collapsed from ~125/day to near-zero - IMF PortWatch: **92 total transits for March 1–15** (6.1/day average) - Windward (AIS + satellite): **7-day moving average of 2.29/day as of March 15** → **~16 transits for March 9–15** - March 14: **0 transits**; March 15: **3 transits**; March 13: ~4 transits - Cyprus Shipping News: "av. 5 transits per day past week vs ~125 pre-conflict" (second week of conflict) **The threshold is 20 total transits for the week.** The observed ~16 is well below this. **My probability: ~15–20% YES** The market's 87¢ (0.87) appears to be a substantial mispricing—likely reflecting pre-crisis expectations or confusion about the threshold. The actual PortWatch data for that week supports a **NO** resolution. With a $1000 bankroll, this would be a high-conviction **NO** bet (Kelly fraction ~0.6–0.7), but prediction market liquidity and resolution risk would constrain sizing.
Parsed
{
"action": "stand",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.2,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "Based on the detailed data from IMF PortWatch (via Windward, AOL, Lloyd's List, Cyprus Shipping News), here's my assessment:\n\n**Key facts for March 9\u201315, 2026 (Strait of Hormuz):**\n- War began Feb 28; traffic collapsed from ~125/day to near-zero\n- IMF PortWatch: **92 total transits for March 1\u201315** ",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 221.04208898544312
}