GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-80
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 90.0, "implied_p": 0.9} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-80", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.5625, "prob_error": 0.75, "calibration_bin": 7} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Economics): "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.140?". The market currently prices YES at 90.00 cents (implied probability 0.900). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
Based on current data: AAA reports national average at **$4.096** (as of 8/2/26), just **$0.044 below** the $4.140 threshold. We're in peak summer driving season with hurricane risk to Gulf refineries. However, EIA/GasBuddy forecasts project declining prices (~$3.10-3.22 for 2025-26), though actuals have significantly exceeded those forecasts. **My probability: ~75%** — high given proximity to threshold and seasonal upside risks, but below the market's 90% given downward fundamental forecasts and the small margin needed.
Parsed
{
"action": "stand",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.75,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "Based on current data: AAA reports national average at **$4.096** (as of 8/2/26), just **$0.044 below** the $4.140 threshold. We're in peak summer driving season with hurricane risk to Gulf refineries.\n\nHowever, EIA/GasBuddy forecasts project declining prices (~$3.10-3.22 for 2025-26), though actual",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 36.487866163253784
}