GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3

market-pricing-8

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
instrument	Nemotron-3-Ultra
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 1.0, "implied_p": 0.01}
score	{"id": "market-pricing-8", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.0225, "prob_error": 0.15, "calibration_bin": 1}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Crypto): "BTC price up in next 15 mins?". The market currently prices YES at 1.00 cents (implied probability 0.010). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.

Raw response

I'd estimate **5-15%** (higher than the market's 1%).

Energy topics (gas prices, SPR releases, OPEC, domestic production) come up regularly in White House briefings. The word "oil" specifically is less frequent than "energy" or "gas prices," but still plausible any given week—especially with current energy price volatility.

At 1¢ (1%), the market seems to be pricing this as a rare specific-word occurrence rather than the broader energy-topic frequency. I'd buy YES up to ~10¢.

Parsed

{
 "action": "hit",
 "bet_size": null,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.15,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "I'd estimate **5-15%** (higher than the market's 1%).\n\nEnergy topics (gas prices, SPR releases, OPEC, domestic production) come up regularly in White House briefings. The word \"oil\" specifically is less frequent than \"energy\" or \"gas prices,\" but still plausible any given week\u2014especially with curren",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 18.876209020614624
}