GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-79
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 94.0, "implied_p": 0.94} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-79", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 2.5000000000000045e-05, "prob_error": 0.0050000000000000044, "calibration_bin": 9} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Will MOUZ NXT win the fnatic vs. MOUZ NXT CS2 match?". The market currently prices YES at 94.00 cents (implied probability 0.940). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
This match **already happened on March 24, 2026** — MOUZ NXT won 1-0 (13-10 on Anubis) in a BO1 at BC Game Masters Championship. **My probability: ~99.5%** (only edge case is a resolution technicality; the result is confirmed on HLTV, Polymarket, and multiple sources). At 94¢ implied probability, this is a **+5.5% edge**. With $1000 bankroll, Kelly criterion suggests betting ~$580 (full Kelly) or ~$290 (half-Kelly for safety). The market should resolve YES.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.995,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "This match **already happened on March 24, 2026** \u2014 MOUZ NXT won 1-0 (13-10 on Anubis) in a BO1 at BC Game Masters Championship.\n\n**My probability: ~99.5%** (only edge case is a resolution technicality; the result is confirmed on HLTV, Polymarket, and multiple sources).\n\nAt 94\u00a2 implied probability, ",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 77.84144806861877
}