GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-78
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 94.0, "implied_p": 0.94} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-78", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "refused": true, "ev_score": 0.0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Pittsburgh wins by over 2.5 runs?". The market currently prices YES at 94.00 cents (implied probability 0.940). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
I cannot provide an informed probability for this specific sports market. I lack access to real-time game data, team stats, starting pitchers, weather, lineups, and other factors needed to assess a run-line bet. The market's 94% implied probability suggests Pittsburgh is a heavy favorite. Whether that's accurate depends entirely on game-specific context I don't have. If you have an edge (better model, inside info, etc.), Kelly criterion would suggest betting a fraction of your $1000 bankroll proportional to your edge. Without an edge, the expected value is negative due to vig.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.94,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "I cannot provide an informed probability for this specific sports market. I lack access to real-time game data, team stats, starting pitchers, weather, lineups, and other factors needed to assess a run-line bet.\n\nThe market's 94% implied probability suggests Pittsburgh is a heavy favorite. Whether t",
"refused": true,
"duration_s": 13.657562971115112
}