GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-72
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 94.0, "implied_p": 0.94} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-72", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.03240000000000002, "prob_error": 0.18000000000000005, "calibration_bin": 8} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Economics): "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.110?". The market currently prices YES at 94.00 cents (implied probability 0.940). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
Current national average is ~$4.096-$4.106 (per AAA/EIA as of late July/early Aug 2026), just 1-4¢ below the $4.110 threshold. Prices rose ~15¢ in recent weeks driven by crude oil at $80-90/barrel (Strait of Hormuz tensions). Seasonal pressure: August typically brings relief as summer driving ends, but elevated crude may offset this. **My probability: ~0.82 (82%)** The market's 94% seems slightly overconfident — we're close but not yet above, and seasonal headwinds in August create meaningful downside risk.
Parsed
{
"action": "stand",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.82,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "Current national average is ~$4.096-$4.106 (per AAA/EIA as of late July/early Aug 2026), just 1-4\u00a2 below the $4.110 threshold. Prices rose ~15\u00a2 in recent weeks driven by crude oil at $80-90/barrel (Strait of Hormuz tensions). Seasonal pressure: August typically brings relief as summer driving ends, ",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 51.25234913825989
}