GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-71
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 92.0, "implied_p": 0.92} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-71", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": null, "prob_error": null, "calibration_bin": 0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Crypto): "Bitcoin price on Apr 16, 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 92.00 cents (implied probability 0.920). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
This question is incomplete. A prediction market for "Bitcoin price on Apr 16, 2026" needs a specific price threshold (e.g., "Bitcoin > $100,000 on Apr 16, 2026?"). What is the YES condition — at what price level does the market resolve YES?
Parsed
{
"action": "stand",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": null,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "This question is incomplete. A prediction market for \"Bitcoin price on Apr 16, 2026\" needs a specific price threshold (e.g., \"Bitcoin > $100,000 on Apr 16, 2026?\").\n\nWhat is the YES condition \u2014 at what price level does the market resolve YES?",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 16.34448480606079
}