GAMBLEBENCH · QUOTE TERMINAL · V3

market-pricing-70

RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3

field	value
instrument	Nemotron-3-Ultra
module	prediction_market · rationality
ground truth	{"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 59.0, "implied_p": 0.59}
score	{"id": "market-pricing-70", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.006399999999999993, "prob_error": 0.07999999999999996, "calibration_bin": 9}

Prompt

Prediction market question (Economics): "Will above 70000 jobs be added in March 2026?". The market currently prices YES at 59.00 cents (implied probability 0.590). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.

Raw response

0.90

The market's 92% implies strong confidence. With ~8 months until expiry (from Aug 2026 perspective), the S&P 500 would need to drop ~8% from current levels to breach 6500. Historical 8-month drawdowns of that magnitude occur ~15-20% of the time, but the market's pricing suggests lower perceived risk. I'd shade slightly below the market price due to tail risk and potential model error.

Parsed

{
 "action": null,
 "bet_size": null,
 "confidence": null,
 "probability": 0.92,
 "p_cover": null,
 "p_over": null,
 "reasoning": "0.90\n\nThe market's 92% implies strong confidence. With ~8 months until expiry (from Aug 2026 perspective), the S&P 500 would need to drop ~8% from current levels to breach 6500. Historical 8-month drawdowns of that magnitude occur ~15-20% of the time, but the market's pricing suggests lower perceive",
 "refused": false,
 "duration_s": 41.63488793373108
}