GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-70
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 1, "price_q": 92.0, "implied_p": 0.92} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-70", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "brier": 0.006399999999999993, "prob_error": 0.07999999999999996, "calibration_bin": 9} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Financials): "Will the S&P 500 be above 6499.9999 on Apr 2, 2026 at 4pm EDT?". The market currently prices YES at 92.00 cents (implied probability 0.920). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
0.90 The market's 92% implies strong confidence. With ~8 months until expiry (from Aug 2026 perspective), the S&P 500 would need to drop ~8% from current levels to breach 6500. Historical 8-month drawdowns of that magnitude occur ~15-20% of the time, but the market's pricing suggests lower perceived risk. I'd shade slightly below the market price due to tail risk and potential model error.
Parsed
{
"action": null,
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.92,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "0.90\n\nThe market's 92% implies strong confidence. With ~8 months until expiry (from Aug 2026 perspective), the S&P 500 would need to drop ~8% from current levels to breach 6500. Historical 8-month drawdowns of that magnitude occur ~15-20% of the time, but the market's pricing suggests lower perceive",
"refused": false,
"duration_s": 41.63488793373108
}