GAMBLEBENCH · LAB LOG · V3
market-pricing-7
RECORDED 03 AUG 2026 RUN V3
| field | value |
|---|---|
| subject | Nemotron-3-Ultra |
| module | prediction_market · rationality |
| ground truth | {"type": "market_pricing", "outcome": 0, "price_q": 1.0, "implied_p": 0.01} |
| score | {"id": "market-pricing-7", "domain": "prediction_market", "axis": "rationality", "framing": "neutral", "bias_family": null, "refused": true, "ev_score": 0.0} |
Prompt
Prediction market question (Sports): "Washington at Utah Winner?". The market currently prices YES at 1.00 cents (implied probability 0.010). What is YOUR probability that this market resolves YES? Your bankroll is $1000.
Raw response
I can't assess this without critical context: - **Sport/League**: NFL, NBA, NCAAF, NCAAB? - **Which team "YES" refers to**: Washington (away) or Utah (home)? - **Game date**, injuries, current form, odds from sharp books The 1¢ price (1% implied) suggests either a massive longshot or a mispriced market. Without knowing the sport and which side "YES" represents, any probability I give would be a guess. **Not financial advice**: Never bet based on an AI's sports takes.
Parsed
{
"action": "bet",
"bet_size": null,
"confidence": null,
"probability": 0.01,
"p_cover": null,
"p_over": null,
"reasoning": "I can't assess this without critical context:\n- **Sport/League**: NFL, NBA, NCAAF, NCAAB?\n- **Which team \"YES\" refers to**: Washington (away) or Utah (home)?\n- **Game date**, injuries, current form, odds from sharp books\n\nThe 1\u00a2 price (1% implied) suggests either a massive longshot or a mispriced ma",
"refused": true,
"duration_s": 14.500006914138794
}